What’s Next? A Few Words From Peter Downs, CNR Editor

While a project manager for a local general contractor was giving me a tour of a large job site the other day, workers on the site kept stopping him to ask, “do you know what’s coming up next?”  They were anxious to know if there would be another job when the current one finished.

2010 seems to be on everyone’s mind. Many contractors started 2009 with plenty of work, but finding the next jobs to replace those is a problem. Current work secured financing one, two, or three years ago, but in the current credit climate many projects aren’t even getting to the drawing the board. The American Institute of Architects’ measure of work on the boards has been in a recessionary mode for months, leading the AIA to predict that there will be no upturn in construction activity this year.

"As profits for businesses have fallen and the ability to get credit to finance projects has become far more difficult, construction plans have been put on hold or canceled outright in recent months," said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker. "This is not expected to turn around anytime soon and it's likely to get worse before it gets better." The semi-annual construction forecast from the AIA projects an 11 percent decline in nonresidential construction spending in inflation adjusted terms in 2009,
and a further decline in 2010.

With The Conference Board estimating that there are over 50 unemployed construction workers for every advertised job vacancy, it is not surprising that those who have a job look at the near future with some trepidation. Nor is it surprising that “jobs” has become the rallying cry for any policy issue touching on construction.

At the state level, the Missouri Association for Historic Preservation and Economic Development is crying that proposals in the Missouri Senate to do away with or cap historic renovation tax credits is an attack on construction jobs. Meanwhile, the Associated General Contractors and other groups are claiming that proposed Employee Free Choice Act in the U.S. Congress would destroy jobs. Regardless, the cry of “jobs, jobs,” is one we are certain to hear often in coming months from people on both sides of many issues.

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